Germany’s Medical Cannabis Boom and the Oversupply Warning for Global Players
The German cannabis market has been on a rocket‐trajectory. Since the partial liberalisation of medical and regulatory reforms, the country has rapidly emerged as Europe’s pre-eminent medical cannabis destination. But along with the promise comes a growing challenge: oversupply. And for global brokers and platforms like Green Consulting International Services (GCIS) evaluating cross-border opportunities, that’s a red flag that demands strategic attention.
Boom Times But Not Without Complexity
In the last two years, Germany’s medical cannabis market has grown from an estimated €435 million to a projected €670 million plus. Telemedicine-fuelled access, regulatory relaxation and ramped imports have combined to create a surge of supply. One publication describes how flower imports in Q2 2025 alone hit 43.3 tonnes which is up from 37.5 tonnes in Q1.
However, beneath the headline growth lies a growing risk: product flooding, sharp price drops and inventory nearing expiration. The import quota of 122 tonnes was reportedly exhausted by September.
What’s Driving the Oversupply?
Several structural and market factors are aligning:
- Rapid import expansion. German supply chains are dominated by large overseas exports (notably Canada and Portugal). Some channels are now under regulatory scrutiny, meaning supply is prolific but not always smoothly managed.
- Too many entrants, too quickly. Companies rushed into the German market expecting demand to match capacity. One industry leader said: “Last summer there was euphoria… by Q3–Q4 there [was] panic, not enough supply… now oversupply.”
- Demand growth slowing vs. supply growth. Although patient numbers are rising, the supply growth is outpacing realistic end-user demand. Moreover, regulatory reforms are under pressure which may temper growth.
Why This Matters for GCIS
As a broker and platform operator with international reach, GCIS (and its B2B platform Harvex) will monitor oversupply dynamics carefully for a few reasons:
- Margin compression risk. Oversupply tends to push down wholesale prices, which squeezes margins for exporters, brokers and platforms as we have been seeing.
- Inventory and expiry risk. Tons of product nearing expiration creates downstream cost burdens or write-downs for sellers and distributors.
- Regulatory backlash. Germany is already signaling policy pullbacks (e.g., restricting online prescriptions, tightening telemedicine access) which could dampen the medical channel growth.
- Competitive pressure. As Germany becomes saturated, growth will shift to other markets. Entering at the wrong time could mean chasing a declining opportunity.
Strategic Considerations & Recommendations
Given the risks, here are strategic actions look like:
- Diversify into other markets. Germany remains important, but oversupply suggests that being overly concentrated there is risky. Broaden into other EU/ international jurisdictions with tighter supply-demand balance.
- Prioritise quality and differentiation. When supply is abundant, buyers cherry-pick for quality, niche strains or value-added services. Emphasise premium positioning and pricing.
- Leverage regulatory forecasting. With Germany’s regulatory environment shifting (e.g., mail-order bans, mandatory in-person prescriptions) it’s important to integrate policy-intelligence into your sales strategy.
- Educate buyers and suppliers. Consultancy roles as a partner in your sales strategy allow us to advise German and overseas suppliers about realistic demand expectations, the dangers of overcommitment, and the value of flexible contract terms in a dynamic market.
In conclusion, Germany’s transformation in the medical cannabis space is real and the opportunity is significant. But the oversupply wave presents a cautionary tale: rapid growth does not guarantee sustainable returns. The smart play is to treat Germany as one node of a broader international strategy, not the single growth engine.
By staying ahead of the supply-demand curve, aligning with regulatory shifts, and leveraging data, GCIS can help you turn this challenge into a competitive edge, rather than a valuation drag.
Photo by Norbert Braun on Unsplash
